As folks get involved in trying to help our Ukrainian brothers in their defense of their homeland, there are lots of useful ideas for technologies that can potentially deliver operational value, it is important to remember there are some unique aspects of military operations that should be considered.
In the world of military operations, there is always a need, a search, for new technologies (or new use of old technologies) to gain an operational advantage. As we have seen over the past decade, and in particular over the past three years following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been an exponential increase in the use of new/repurposed technology to gain operational advantage.
Within the Defense Tech for Ukraine world, what this has translated to is a search for new technologies largely centered on the air domain, with emphasis on UAV and counter-UAV solution sets. Whether looking for ways to detect or defeat aerial drones, or ways to enhance Ukraine’s aerial drone capabilities, we have pursued a wide variety of solutions. Some have proven high value, while some have proven to be dead ends; but all have been useful.
In the world of military capability development, most nation states have formal processes by which they determine requirements and then pursue material solutions to meet those requirements. Unfortunately, the VAST majority of these processes do not yield solution sets that are acceptable in the time frames necessitated by on-going conflict. Much like World War 2, where nations pursued a wide variety of potential solutions for near-term problems, we must adopt a requirements framework that keeps the critical needs at the forefront, so that solutions can be either delivered or discarded in short order.
I would offer four overarching requirements that DTU teammates should address when seeking solutions: time to deliver, operational environment, serial production, and sustainability.
TIME TO DELIVER
For DTU, the most critical requirement is time. This is not a fixed time horizon, but rather a timeframe for different requirements based on the operational context for the solution set. Is it a tactical solution needed for rifle squads or something that provides a paradigm shift at the strategic level? As an example, when looking at drone detection requirements for front line formations, this is clearly an immediate need and any potential solution sets should be capable of delivery within months, if not weeks. If looking at something that provides long-range heavy lift cargo delivery, then perhaps a year or more is acceptable.
However, even the longer timeline is lightning quick compared to most defense modernization/acquisition timelines, as the figure below shows (and this was a model for an “accelerated” Department of Defense model.
It is critical that the Program Manager for a particular capability spends some time up front determining what the right time horizon is; and you must be willing to terminate the effort if it becomes clear that the effort will not be ready then – regardless how promising it is.
OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
Operational environment refers to the conditions under which the system must be employed. It accounts for both the traditional military operational environment considerations such as the type of unit, echelon, and the doctrine or Tactic, Techniques, Procedures (TTP), but also the actual climatic/weather environment. If a system is to provide support to front line Infantry or Reconnaissance units, then it must function in hot(>50ºC), cold (<20ºC), wet (rain, sleet, snow), dry (<20%), humid (>80%), or windy (nominal wind and gust spreads) conditions just like the soldiers in those formations due. These environmental conditions may be seen as constraints, but while they may limit options, they ensure the options selected have operational value. Designing a capable drone whose battery only works when it’s 20-30ºC, or when there’s no precipitation does nothing for the soldier.
Solutions cannot add significant additional physical or cognitive loads to individuals, whether leaders or executors – combat is already burdensome enough. The ‘return on investment’ or ‘value added’ of a particular solution must be significant enough that soldiers see it not as a burden or marginal improvement with limited value, but as something that eases their load (physical as well as mental) when they are in the fight, under all conditions. If there are limitations, those must be understood, and if a system is provided to a unit for assessment, the unit’s personnel must know those limitations up front so they can do both an initial assessment as to whether to even take the time and to properly employ the system and gauge its value given any constraints.
Looking at the two options below (both are available today and in use in some locations), which would a Ukrainian soldier prefer?
SERIAL PRODUCTION
Serial production is not just the ability to manufacture products in an industrial manner but also looking at the supply chain to understand its viability and resilience to interruption. While initial prototypes will likely be bespoke, there must early on be anassessment as to what, if any, components or manufacturing capabilities will become constraints to full production.
Ideally, simultaneously with building the initial prototypes, a list is compiled of where products can be reasonably and reliably sourced, as well as specific manufacturing needs. As an example, while the DJI family of UAVs are pervasive in the conflict, as we generate new types of UAVs we should be looking at European or American components that might have more reliable supply chains in the future, and which might allow for standardization with NATO or other organization’s technical standards.
SUSTAINABILITY
Sustainability in some respects links to serial production and the desire for standardization with other organizations, such as NATO or the EU. Early on, there should be acknowledgement as to whether a solution is disposable, expendable, or durable. These three categories are not necessarily all inclusive but help to understand how to look at sustainability.
When something is disposable, it is like a round of ammunition and is expected to be a one-time use. Kamikaze drones might be viewed in this way; they are not reusable and have no repair or replacement part supply chains. Many UAVs might be viewed as expendable in that they are designed to be used repeatedly, perhaps with sub-components that can be replaced and/or repaired; but if lost due to operational actions it is expected and not catastrophic.
BALANCING THE COMPETING DEMANDS
As we think about solutions, and even while executing the effort, we must remember these four elements and be constantly reassessing their status. They are in many ways dynamic, and there are potential adjustments to be made as projects and programs move forward – either slowing or speeding progress to solutions.
There may be trade offs in sustainability that allow a solution set to be delivered faster, albeit with perhaps a higher resource cost or less capability. Conversely, we may find that serial production delays delivery of a final product, but a bespoke (hand crafted) solution is the only way to meet the time constraints.
Prototyping early and often, beginning often with sub-components and working continuously throughout a program can be the difference between success and failure. Especially given the fast timelines and the lack of resources found in government to test and evaluate via large-scale simulation and modeling, we must make the most use of prototypes along the way to find and fix problems when they are small, before getting to an end state product that we intend to deliver.
Throughout the effort, program managers and team members all need to be alert to the relationships between the four areas and work diligently to keep the effort moving forward. One of the key aspects of this is a willingness to terminate an effort when it becomes likely that the solution will not meet the operational needs in the timeframe necessary. Leaders and team members must avoid becoming too emotionally attached to the solution, and be willing and able to make determinations when it is unlikely to succeed.
It is also important to remember that there may be individual technical elements that must be considered, depending on the material solution (e.g. power management, algorithms, communications protocols, etc); but we must never forget these four core principles as we develop solutions.
The best way we can help our Ukrainian partners is by ensuring that the solutions we provide them meet minimal operational requirements in the timeframes needed, so that soldiers on the ground can determine whether it’s useful or not.Defense Tech for Ukraine (DTU) supports dozens of innovative projects to strengthen Ukraine’s defense. These projects are organized according to Technology Readiness Level (TRL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level) and volunteer involvement. Functioning as an international early-stage incubator, the 300+ volunteer engineers, programmers, investors, project managers and other allies are committed to the Ukrainian victory. Sign up on the website to join DTU’s weekly strategy sessions and get involved in these projects.
